Political analyst Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, told CNA that China has a stronger track record in developing infrastructure in the region compared to the US, and is the superpower more likely to garner trust and goodwill.
“Moreover, as most Southeast Asian nations are still (having fiscal issues), they welcome any form of investment and are not in a position to pick and choose. They have no cards to play,” said Oh.
Indonesia is, for instance, in talks with China to extend its high-speed rail network to connect Jakarta and Surabaya.
“Almost all the countries in ASEAN will press on with infrastructural collaboration with China, with the exception of the Philippines,” he added.
Yet, in spite of Rubio’s recent comments, Oh maintained that the US, with its current protectionist stance under Trump, is unlikely to invest in overseas projects. This might lead more people in the region to view China “favourably” moving forward.
“Countries in Southeast Asia (will be more) receptive to high-tech from China as they hope they can be uplifted both quantitatively and qualitatively from their current socioeconomic conditions,” he added.
China has also reportedly pivoted to more modest financing for the BRI.
In late-2023, it pledged 780 billion yuan (US$106.6 billion) in new financing for the Belt and Road Initiative – a modest figure compared to previous years, observers noted.
Grace Stanhope, a research associate with the Lowy Institute’s Indo-Pacific Development Centre, told CNA this signals a pivot from costly huge megaprojects like railway lines to “small yet smart” projects such as schools and hospitals.
“They’re using a lot less debt than they were back in the pre-2016 era. And now we see fewer Belt and Road projects in Southeast Asia are being signed,” she said.
However, she maintained that the strategy of funding infrastructure in the region is certainly not dead in the water, and something Beijing will press on with, citing how plans for a Vietnam-China railway were finalised in February.
“The infrastructure focus is definitely still there. So it’s not gone away, it’s not dead,” she said.
Political analyst Lucio Blanco Pitlo III said that although presently bitter relations with China have derailed infrastructure projects and impacted fruit exports and tourism, the Philippines will be a “laggard” if it does not engage China in the economic sphere due to maritime concerns.
“The concern is that the Philippines (will not be) able to benefit from China’s strengths like infrastructure investment, tourism, green technologies, offshore wind, solar and, not to mention, electric vehicle technology,” he said.
Tagum village chief Catahum agrees.
Even though he is frustrated that China has pulled funding for the Mindanao railway and is seen by Filipinos as the antagonist in the maritime dispute, he is keen for both countries to put their differences aside and return to the negotiating table for the infrastructure projects.
“We are Filipinos, and our sentiments are with our fellow countrymen. But I think the solution is not just to fight against them. They can discuss it at the negotiating table,” Catahum said.
“We hope our leaders will find a solution to these problems. Let’s engage in dialogue with China,” he said.
Additional reporting by Kiki Siregar
