Pope Francis, 88, the oldest pope in over a century, died Monday morning, though quiet discussions on who could succeed him have reportedly already begun.
While any male Catholic could in theory be chosen to sit in the papal seat, historically, succeeding popes have been selected from the Sacred College of Cardinals since 1378, according to Religion News Service.
Currently, there are 252 cardinals in the body who have been selected by the Holy Father to serve as his advisors and assistants.
Here is a look at some of the most likely forerunners to serve as the 267th pope, according to public reporting.
Pope Francis is seen delivering a homily during Mass with newly appointed cardinals. (Stefano Costantino/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
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Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, Italy
Parolin, the Vatican’s secretary of state, is the highest-ranking diplomat in the Holy See – which is the governing body of the Catholic Church – and is believed to be among the cardinals most likely to be elected to the top position.
His favor among cardinals in the Sacred College, who will vote on the next pope, is due to his politically moderate position and his career in diplomacy, reported The New York Post.
Parolin, who spent part of his career in Mexico and Nicaragua, was appointed by Pope Francis in 2014 and would likely be seen as an extension of the current papacy.
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The Vatican’s secretary of state, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, attends the blessing ceremony of the newly opened reception and integration center for Ukrainian refugees during the Bishops’ Conference of Slovakia in Kosice, Slovakia, on Sept. 15, 2023. (Robert Nemeti/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, Philippines
Tagle is also believed to be a frontrunner among voting cardinals and serves as the pro-prefect for the section of first evangelization of the Dicastery for Evangelization, as well as president of the Interdicasterial Commission for Consecrated Religious.
He has been dubbed the “Asian Pope Francis” particularly for their similarities when it comes to their more embracing position of the LGBTQI community than their predecessors.
In a 2015 interview, Tagle said the Church’s “severe” position on the LGBTQI community, divorcees and single mothers was doing it harm.
According to the Catholic Herald, Tagle “would be hailed by liberals, given the changing demographic of the Church.”
Pope Francis greets Philippine Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle during a ceremonial welcome at the Presidential Palace in Jakarta on Sept. 4, 2024. (Tiziana FabiI/AFP via Getty Images)
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Cardinal Peter Erdo, 72, Hungary
There are several conservative cardinals who are believed to be top contenders for the papacy, including Cardinal Peter Erdo, who has been critical of Francis’ position on divorce and immigration.
Erdo has argued that divorced or re-married Catholics should not be allowed to receive Holy Communion due to his position regarding the “indissolubility of marriage.”
The Catholic Herald pointed out that appointing a conservative pope following Francis’ tenure would “send a powerful message about the direction the Church would be taking.”
Erdo has also differed from Francis greatly on immigration and argued in 2015 that permitting refugees to resettle is tantamount to human trafficking.
Pope Francis greets the archbishop of Budapest, Cardinal Péter Erdő, after arriving in Budapest, Hungary, on April 28, 2023. (Vatican Media Vatican Pool/Getty Images)
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65, Democratic Republic of Congo
Another conservative cardinal thought to be a serious contender is Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from the war-torn nation of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Membership of the Catholic Church in Africa is growing faster than anywhere else in the world, according to the Associated Press.
Congolese Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (AP Photo/Andrew Medichini)
The 65-year-old Ambongo controversially rejected Pope Francis’ blessing of same-sex couples by the Catholic Church. In a letter signed by other African priests, they said they refused to follow the pontiff’s declaration because such unions are “contrary to the will of God.”
Cardinal Raymond Burke, 76, United States of America
The Wisconsin native and former archbishop of St. Louis is considered to be the leading American candidate. The 76-year-old cardinal is also viewed as being from the conservative side of the Church.
Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke attends the Consistory for the creation of new Cardinals led by Pope Francis at the St. Peter’s Basilica in Vatican City, Vatican. (Franco Origlia/Getty Images)
He is a proponent of the Latin Mass, and has been critical of Pope Francis regarding the Church’s new language around artificial contraception, LGBT issues and civil marriages. Burke was made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI in 2010.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, 69, Italy
Pope Francis meets with Cardinal Matteo Zuppi during an audience at the Apostolic Palace on Aug. 24, 2023, in Vatican City. (Vatican Media via Vatican Pool/Getty Images)
Zuppi was born in Rome. He is the president of the Italian Episcopal Conference and is viewed as an insider in Francis’ Vatican, having served as the archbishop of Bologna.
The 69-year-old Zuppi is seen as being one of Pope Francis’ favorites. He was sent on a peace mission in 2023 to Ukraine, where he met with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He was also sent to meet with President Joe Biden that same year.
Zuppi was made a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2019.
The Vote
Of the 252 cardinals in the Sacred College, only 138 are under the age of 80 and therefore are permitted to participate in the conclave, the papal election process – though there are no age limitations for the candidate who would serve as the future pope.
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Following the death of a pope, the conclave then holds a vote, and will continue to vote, until a pope is chosen by a two-thirds majority.
At that time, the ballots will be burned with a chemical that produces white smoke, as opposed to black smoke, to alert the world that a new pope has been chosen.
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